{
  "schema_version": 2,
  "version": "2026-10-07-editor-inputs-r2",
  "status": "editor_parameters_recorded_not_a_new_forecast",
  "provenance": {
    "kind": "explicit_editor_instructions",
    "recorded_on": "2026-10-07",
    "independent_empirical_verification": false
  },
  "application_scope": "Depth layer only. Do not apply these coefficients to the already-weighted polls or to final integer seats.",
  "transfers": {
    "editor_reported_coalition_to_opposition_pct": 15,
    "editor_reported_opposition_to_coalition_pct": 5,
    "editor_selected_net_pct": 10,
    "applied_mode": "explicit_net_assumption",
    "net_direction": "coalition_to_opposition",
    "net_fraction": 0.1,
    "reference_basis": "baseline coalition valid votes in the 2022 structural input",
    "reference_basis_status": "explicit implementation interpretation; not an empirical finding",
    "old_15_5_parameter_superseded": true,
    "do_not_apply_gross_rates_in_addition": true,
    "note_he": "10% נטו היא הנחת העבודה שנבחרה. שיעורים של 15% ושל 5% מגושים שונים אינם מתקזזים בהכרח ל־10% מאותו בסיס. המנוע אינו מפעיל גם את שני המעברים הגולמיים וגם את הנטו.",
    "recipient_allocation": "Required explicitly from the structural baseline; no hidden per-party allocation."
  },
  "haredi": {
    "turnout_change_percentage_points": -1.5,
    "turnout_change_fraction": -0.015,
    "baseline_turnout": null,
    "baseline_turnout_status": "must be identified in the structural baseline; not inferred from a poll certainty question",
    "leakage_to_below_threshold_fraction": 0.02,
    "leakage_denominator": "valid ballots cast by the Haredi cohort after turnout adjustment",
    "leakage_treatment": "specified total share diverted from the cohort party allocation to a below-threshold bucket; do not add 2% again on top of an already modelled 2% share",
    "sequence": [
      "adjust cohort turnout in percentage points",
      "derive valid cast ballots",
      "allocate 2% of that total below threshold",
      "retain the remaining98% for the supplied party distribution"
    ],
    "scope_warning": "Not 2% of the entire electorate; not all Shas/UTJ voters assumed to be Haredi; the below-threshold bucket remains valid votes, not abstention."
  },
  "new_immigrants": {
    "turnout": 0.5,
    "turnout_provenance": "inherited previously agreed working assumption",
    "opposition_advantage_percentage_points": 0.3,
    "opposition_advantage_fraction": 0.003,
    "basis": "valid cast ballots within the new-immigrant cohort only",
    "interpretation": "target opposition minus coalition gap within this cohort; not a national vote-share increment",
    "two_bloc_equivalent_if_no_other_votes": {
      "opposition": 0.5015,
      "coalition": 0.4985
    },
    "preserve_other_party_share": true,
    "cohort_size": null,
    "cohort_size_status": "must be supplied by the demographic baseline; no headcount guessed",
    "rationale_as_given_by_editor": "many arrivals from Ukraine",
    "rationale_status": "editor rationale, not newly verified demographic or partisan evidence"
  },
  "arab_turnout": {
    "base": 0.59,
    "sensitivity": 0.65,
    "status": "inherited project working assumptions"
  },
  "missing_poll_values": {
    "poll16_Hendel_Zelicha": {
      "reported_seats": 0,
      "reported_pct": null,
      "status": "no_seats_in_complete_supplied_allocation",
      "editor_confirmed_exact_pct_unavailable": true,
      "do_not_impute_zero_votes": true,
      "retain_poll_in_source_weights": true,
      "handling": "retain seat/status evidence; percentage remains null; no latent midpoint or substitute percentage silently assigned"
    }
  },
  "podcast": {
    "public_display": false,
    "archive_player": false,
    "links": false
  },
  "new_full_forecast_generated": false
}