{ "model_version": "M120-R19-conditional-2026-10-16-LAZAR-SURPLUS", "calculated_on": "2026-10-16", "input_cutoff": "2026-10-16", "classification": "new_reproducible_conditional_allocation_not_calibrated_election_prediction", "full_legacy_model_recovered": false, "legacy_output_used_as_fitting_target": false, "is_live_site_update": false, "party_names": { "Yashar": "ישר!", "Likud": "הליכוד", "Beyachad": "ביחד", "Democrats": "הדמוקרטים", "Yisrael_Beiteinu": "ישראל ביתנו", "Joint_List": "הרשימה המשותפת", "Otzma": "עוצמה יהודית", "Shas": "ש״ס", "UTJ": "יהדות התורה", "RZ_Zehut": "הציונות הדתית–זהות", "Raam": "רע״ם", "Amcha_Yisrael": "עמך ישראל", "Hendel_Zelicha": "הנדל–זליכה", "Blue_White": "כחול לבן" }, "reference": { "seats": { "Yashar": 22, "Likud": 20, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 9, "Joint_List": 9, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 8, "RZ_Zehut": 6, "Raam": 6, "Amcha_Yisrael": 0, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4, "Blue_White": 0, "Other": 0 }, "blocs": { "coalition": 49, "opposition_non_arab": 52, "arab_parties": 15, "unassigned": 4, "other": 0 }, "eligible_lists": [ "Yashar", "Likud", "Beyachad", "Democrats", "Yisrael_Beiteinu", "Joint_List", "Otzma", "Shas", "UTJ", "RZ_Zehut", "Raam", "Hendel_Zelicha" ], "valid_vote_total": 100.0, "threshold_votes": 3.25, "eligible_vote_total": 95.21420989162154, "initial_seats": { "Yashar": 22, "Likud": 19, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 8, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 8, "Joint_List": 8, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 7, "RZ_Zehut": 6, "Raam": 5, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4 }, "active_pairs": [ [ "Likud", "RZ_Zehut" ], [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], [ "Shas", "UTJ" ] ], "surplus_awards": [ { "award_number": 1, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.8297788867450981, "seats_before_award": 13 }, { "award_number": 2, "group": [ "Shas", "UTJ" ], "quotient": 0.8030542374301703, "seats_before_award": 14 }, { "award_number": 3, "group": [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], "quotient": 0.7919136521169752, "seats_before_award": 30 }, { "award_number": 4, "group": [ "Likud", "RZ_Zehut" ], "quotient": 0.7894758579821068, "seats_before_award": 25 }, { "award_number": 5, "group": [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], "quotient": 0.7776819919107009, "seats_before_award": 20 }, { "award_number": 6, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.774460294295425, "seats_before_award": 14 } ], "ties": [] }, "reference_estimated_vote_shares_pct": { "Yashar": 17.56402375429283, "Likud": 15.605389710846117, "Beyachad": 9.628534702921565, "Democrats": 6.985299461333403, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 6.7027871272031545, "Joint_List": 6.9572868546995466, "Otzma": 6.618768512162601, "Shas": 5.987156877868937, "UTJ": 6.058656683583618, "RZ_Zehut": 4.920982596688661, "Raam": 4.659617559731829, "Amcha_Yisrael": 2.8275888358748946, "Hendel_Zelicha": 3.525706050289273, "Blue_White": 0.9757832738199443, "Other": 0.9824179986836283 }, "threshold_evidence": { "Amcha_Yisrael": { "passing_sources": 3, "total_sources": 8, "passing_source_weight": 0.35000000000000003, "source_ids": [ "poll13", "lazar", "poll16" ], "is_probability": false }, "Hendel_Zelicha": { "passing_sources": 7, "total_sources": 8, "passing_source_weight": 0.96, "source_ids": [ "poll12", "kan11_kantar", "poll13", "lazar", "poll16", "zman_tatika", "poll14" ], "is_probability": false }, "RZ_Zehut": { "passing_sources": 8, "total_sources": 8, "passing_source_weight": 1.0, "source_ids": [ "poll12", "kan11_kantar", "poll13", "lazar", "poll16", "zman_tatika", "i24", "poll14" ], "is_probability": false } }, "threshold_scenarios": [ { "label": "Winter below; 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RZ below", "hypothetical_pct": { "Amcha_Yisrael": 2.75, "Hendel_Zelicha": 3.15, "RZ_Zehut": 3.15 }, "normalization": "Other parties rescaled proportionally; not measured voter flows.", "rz_passes": false, "allocation": { "seats": { "Yashar": 25, "Likud": 22, "Beyachad": 14, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 9, "Joint_List": 10, "Otzma": 9, "Shas": 8, "UTJ": 8, "RZ_Zehut": 0, "Raam": 6, "Amcha_Yisrael": 0, "Hendel_Zelicha": 0, "Blue_White": 0, "Other": 0 }, "blocs": { "coalition": 47, "opposition_non_arab": 57, "arab_parties": 16, "unassigned": 0, "other": 0 }, "eligible_lists": [ "Yashar", "Likud", "Beyachad", "Democrats", "Yisrael_Beiteinu", "Joint_List", "Otzma", "Shas", "UTJ", "Raam" ], "valid_vote_total": 100.0, "threshold_votes": 3.25, "eligible_vote_total": 88.94270830733691, "initial_seats": { "Yashar": 24, "Likud": 21, "Beyachad": 13, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 9, "Joint_List": 9, "Otzma": 9, "Shas": 8, "UTJ": 8, "Raam": 6 }, "active_pairs": [ [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], [ "Shas", "UTJ" ] ], "surplus_awards": [ { "award_number": 1, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.7442581379714481, "seats_before_award": 15 }, { "award_number": 2, "group": [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], "quotient": 0.7401398122073208, "seats_before_award": 33 }, { "award_number": 3, "group": [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], "quotient": 0.7278580004079361, "seats_before_award": 22 }, { "award_number": 4, "group": [ "Likud" ], "quotient": 0.7271183362182452, "seats_before_award": 21 } ], "ties": [] } }, { "label": "Both above; RZ below", "hypothetical_pct": { "Amcha_Yisrael": 3.35, "Hendel_Zelicha": 3.35, "RZ_Zehut": 3.15 }, "normalization": "Other parties rescaled proportionally; not measured voter flows.", "rz_passes": false, "allocation": { "seats": { "Yashar": 23, "Likud": 20, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 9, "Joint_List": 9, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 8, "UTJ": 8, "RZ_Zehut": 0, "Raam": 6, "Amcha_Yisrael": 4, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4, "Blue_White": 0, "Other": 0 }, "blocs": { "coalition": 48, "opposition_non_arab": 53, "arab_parties": 15, "unassigned": 4, "other": 0 }, "eligible_lists": [ "Yashar", "Likud", "Beyachad", "Democrats", "Yisrael_Beiteinu", "Joint_List", "Otzma", "Shas", "UTJ", "Raam", "Amcha_Yisrael", "Hendel_Zelicha" ], "valid_vote_total": 100.0, "threshold_votes": 3.25, "eligible_vote_total": 94.86036452893264, "initial_seats": { "Yashar": 22, "Likud": 20, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 8, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 8, "Joint_List": 8, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 7, "Raam": 5, "Amcha_Yisrael": 4, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4 }, "active_pairs": [ [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], [ "Shas", "UTJ" ] ], "surplus_awards": [ { "award_number": 1, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.8430989854786907, "seats_before_award": 13 }, { "award_number": 2, "group": [ "Shas", "UTJ" ], "quotient": 0.8159453363745638, "seats_before_award": 14 }, { "award_number": 3, "group": [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], "quotient": 0.8046259158334637, "seats_before_award": 30 }, { "award_number": 4, "group": [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], "quotient": 0.7901658006470511, "seats_before_award": 20 }, { "award_number": 5, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.786892386446778, "seats_before_award": 14 }, { "award_number": 6, "group": [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], "quotient": 0.779481355963668, "seats_before_award": 31 }, { "award_number": 7, "group": [ "Shas", "UTJ" ], "quotient": 0.7649487528511536, "seats_before_award": 15 } ], "ties": [] } }, { "label": "Winter above; HZ below; RZ below", "hypothetical_pct": { "Amcha_Yisrael": 3.35, "Hendel_Zelicha": 3.15, "RZ_Zehut": 3.15 }, "normalization": "Other parties rescaled proportionally; not measured voter flows.", "rz_passes": false, "allocation": { "seats": { "Yashar": 24, "Likud": 21, "Beyachad": 13, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 9, "Joint_List": 9, "Otzma": 9, "Shas": 8, "UTJ": 8, "RZ_Zehut": 0, "Raam": 6, "Amcha_Yisrael": 4, "Hendel_Zelicha": 0, "Blue_White": 0, "Other": 0 }, "blocs": { "coalition": 50, "opposition_non_arab": 55, "arab_parties": 15, "unassigned": 0, "other": 0 }, "eligible_lists": [ "Yashar", "Likud", "Beyachad", "Democrats", "Yisrael_Beiteinu", "Joint_List", "Otzma", "Shas", "UTJ", "Raam", "Amcha_Yisrael" ], "valid_vote_total": 99.99999999999999, "threshold_votes": 3.2499999999999996, "eligible_vote_total": 91.70595047353369, "initial_seats": { "Yashar": 23, "Likud": 20, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 8, "Joint_List": 9, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 8, "Raam": 6, "Amcha_Yisrael": 4 }, "active_pairs": [ [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], [ "Shas", "UTJ" ] ], "surplus_awards": [ { "award_number": 1, "group": [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], "quotient": 0.7919188029779375, "seats_before_award": 20 }, { "award_number": 2, "group": [ "Shas", "UTJ" ], "quotient": 0.7666458105391205, "seats_before_award": 15 }, { "award_number": 3, "group": [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], "quotient": 0.7575376044512199, "seats_before_award": 32 }, { "award_number": 4, "group": [ "Likud" ], "quotient": 0.7567177763297499, "seats_before_award": 20 }, { "award_number": 5, "group": [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], "quotient": 0.7559224937516675, "seats_before_award": 21 }, { "award_number": 6, "group": [ "Otzma" ], "quotient": 0.7488818325715586, "seats_before_award": 8 } ], "ties": [] } } ], "sensitivity_summary": { "demographic_grid_runs": 605, "same_party_allocation_in_every_demographic_grid_point": true, "technical_grid_runs": 18, "same_party_allocation_in_every_technical_grid_point": true, "these_are_not_confidence_intervals_or_probabilities": true, "no_claim_for_all_continuous_or_unexamined_parameter_values": true }, "alternative_lazar_aggregate_treatment": { "label": "Current Walla Lazar survey has no supplied aggregate party percentage table; current primary fit and no-aggregate fit coincide", "allocation": { "seats": { "Yashar": 22, "Likud": 20, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 9, "Joint_List": 9, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 8, "RZ_Zehut": 6, "Raam": 6, "Amcha_Yisrael": 0, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4, "Blue_White": 0, "Other": 0 }, "blocs": { "coalition": 49, "opposition_non_arab": 52, "arab_parties": 15, "unassigned": 4, "other": 0 }, "eligible_lists": [ "Yashar", "Likud", "Beyachad", "Democrats", "Yisrael_Beiteinu", "Joint_List", "Otzma", "Shas", "UTJ", "RZ_Zehut", "Raam", "Hendel_Zelicha" ], "valid_vote_total": 100.0, "threshold_votes": 3.25, "eligible_vote_total": 95.21420989162154, "initial_seats": { "Yashar": 22, "Likud": 19, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 8, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 8, "Joint_List": 8, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 7, "RZ_Zehut": 6, "Raam": 5, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4 }, "active_pairs": [ [ "Likud", "RZ_Zehut" ], [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], [ "Shas", "UTJ" ] ], "surplus_awards": [ { "award_number": 1, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.8297788867450981, "seats_before_award": 13 }, { "award_number": 2, "group": [ "Shas", "UTJ" ], "quotient": 0.8030542374301703, "seats_before_award": 14 }, { "award_number": 3, "group": [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], "quotient": 0.7919136521169752, "seats_before_award": 30 }, { "award_number": 4, "group": [ "Likud", "RZ_Zehut" ], "quotient": 0.7894758579821068, "seats_before_award": 25 }, { "award_number": 5, "group": [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], "quotient": 0.7776819919107009, "seats_before_award": 20 }, { "award_number": 6, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.774460294295425, "seats_before_award": 14 } ], "ties": [] }, "estimated_hz_pct": 3.525706050289273 }, "arab65_depth_only_sensitivity": { "allocation": { "seats": { "Yashar": 22, "Likud": 20, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 9, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 9, "Joint_List": 9, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 8, "RZ_Zehut": 6, "Raam": 6, "Amcha_Yisrael": 0, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4, "Blue_White": 0, "Other": 0 }, "blocs": { "coalition": 49, "opposition_non_arab": 52, "arab_parties": 15, "unassigned": 4, "other": 0 }, "eligible_lists": [ "Yashar", "Likud", "Beyachad", "Democrats", "Yisrael_Beiteinu", "Joint_List", "Otzma", "Shas", "UTJ", "RZ_Zehut", "Raam", "Hendel_Zelicha" ], "valid_vote_total": 100.0, "threshold_votes": 3.25, "eligible_vote_total": 95.2171027672402, "initial_seats": { "Yashar": 22, "Likud": 19, "Beyachad": 12, "Democrats": 8, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 8, "Joint_List": 8, "Otzma": 8, "Shas": 7, "UTJ": 7, "RZ_Zehut": 6, "Raam": 5, "Hendel_Zelicha": 4 }, "active_pairs": [ [ "Likud", "RZ_Zehut" ], [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], [ "Shas", "UTJ" ] ], "surplus_awards": [ { "award_number": 1, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.8356168107884935, "seats_before_award": 13 }, { "award_number": 2, "group": [ "Shas", "UTJ" ], "quotient": 0.8022731481253227, "seats_before_award": 14 }, { "award_number": 3, "group": [ "Yashar", "Democrats" ], "quotient": 0.7911312401513662, "seats_before_award": 30 }, { "award_number": 4, "group": [ "Likud", "RZ_Zehut" ], "quotient": 0.7887048340427602, "seats_before_award": 25 }, { "award_number": 5, "group": [ "Raam", "Joint_List" ], "quotient": 0.7799090234025939, "seats_before_award": 14 }, { "award_number": 6, "group": [ "Beyachad", "Yisrael_Beiteinu" ], "quotient": 0.7769070248612144, "seats_before_award": 20 } ], "ties": [] }, "scope": "Changes the Arab-turnout assumption ONLY inside the8% depth layer. Not a full-national turnout counterfactual." }, "historical_allocator_check": { "passed": true, "year": 2022, "seat_vector": { "Likud": 32, "Yesh_Atid": 24, "RZ_Otzma": 14, "National_Unity": 12, "Shas": 11, "UTJ": 7, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 6, "Raam": 5, "Hadash_Taal": 5, "Labor": 4, "Meretz": 0, "Balad": 0, "Jewish_Home": 0, "Economic_Freedom": 0, "Ometz": 0, "Economic_New": 0, "Young_Burning": 0, "Other_small_lists": 0 }, "forecast_calibration_or_backtest": false }, "limitations": [ "Reference result is conditional on new technical assumptions; not a reconstruction of the old undocumented engine.", "No probabilities of threshold crossing or election victory are calculated.", "The proportion of polling-source weight allocating seats is a descriptive statistic, not a probability.", "Missing reported percentages remain null in the immutable source file. Latent consensus estimates are stored separately.", "A demographic grid is a sensitivity check, not a population survey or confidence interval.", "Surplus agreement signatures were checked against public reporting on 16 Oct. Formal filing with the Central Elections Committee is not independently confirmed; the allocation is conditional on valid filing and both lists passing the threshold.", "Fixed effective pollster weights are used; no extra recency or sample-size weighting is silently layered on.", "The historical bloc bridge and conditional cohort proxies are new declared assumptions, not observed micro-level transitions.", "Exact demographic cohort sizes remain unmeasured. A representative technical scenario and a declared grid are supplied instead of invented headcounts.", "The output is sensitive to real polling error around the threshold; small technical-grid agreement cannot remove that substantive uncertainty." ], "private_inputs_in_public_export": false, "full_model_reproducible_from_public_files": false }