{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "as_of": "2026-10-16",
  "status": "active_eight_source_snapshot_R19_latest_lazar_16_oct",
  "arab_party_poll_weights": {
    "poll13": 0.5,
    "others_total": 0.5,
    "rule": "Other sources retain their relative weights within the remaining 50%."
  },
  "party_order": [
    "Yashar",
    "Likud",
    "Beyachad",
    "Democrats",
    "Yisrael_Beiteinu",
    "Joint_List",
    "Otzma",
    "Shas",
    "UTJ",
    "RZ_Zehut",
    "Raam",
    "Amcha_Yisrael",
    "Hendel_Zelicha",
    "Blue_White"
  ],
  "party_names": {
    "Yashar": "ישר!",
    "Likud": "הליכוד",
    "Beyachad": "ביחד",
    "Democrats": "הדמוקרטים",
    "Yisrael_Beiteinu": "ישראל ביתנו",
    "Joint_List": "הרשימה המשותפת",
    "Otzma": "עוצמה יהודית",
    "Shas": "ש״ס",
    "UTJ": "יהדות התורה",
    "RZ_Zehut": "הציונות הדתית–זהות",
    "Raam": "רע״ם",
    "Amcha_Yisrael": "עמך ישראל",
    "Hendel_Zelicha": "הנדל–זליכה",
    "Blue_White": "כחול לבן"
  },
  "polls": [
    {
      "source_id": "poll12",
      "label": "חדשות 12 / מדגם / מנו גבע",
      "published_date": "2026-10-12",
      "received_date": "2026-10-12",
      "field_start": "2026-10-12",
      "field_end": "2026-10-12",
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.26,
      "respondents": 509,
      "sampling_error_pct": 4.4,
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "editor_supplied_published_article_text",
        "url": "https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-cc91389788031a1026.htm",
        "public_verification_in_this_build": false,
        "note": "12 Oct replaces 5 Oct within the same 26% poll slot; no new observation. Undecided 8% is not raw vote-share microdata; categories total 8.1% from published rounding. The source reports 509 respondents.",
        "undecided_breakdown_pct": {
          "within_coalition": 1.8,
          "within_opposition": 2.6,
          "between_bloks": 0.2,
          "arab_lists": 0.4,
          "no_preference": 3.1
        },
        "premiership_eizenkot_vs_netanyahu": {
          "Eisenkot": 45,
          "Netanyahu": 35,
          "Neither": 15,
          "Unknown": 5
        },
        "premiership_bennett_vs_netanyahu": {
          "Bennett": 37,
          "Netanyahu": 36,
          "Neither": 21,
          "Unknown": 6
        },
        "supplementary_cec_filing": "sources/Survey_4202.pdf",
        "filing_is_same_measurement_not_new_poll": true,
        "reported_aggregate_percentages_not_added_to_fit": true
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 23,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "23"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 20,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "20"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 13,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "13"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 5,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "5"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 1.8,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "1.8%"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 0.9,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "0.9%"
        }
      },
      "reported_undecided_pct": 8.0,
      "additional_reported_below_threshold_lists": [
        {
          "name_he": "נעם",
          "reported_pct": 0.5
        },
        {
          "name_he": "הציבור החרדי",
          "reported_pct": 0.1
        }
      ],
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 49,
        "opposition_non_arab": 54,
        "arab_parties": 13,
        "unassigned": 4
      }
    },
    {
      "source_id": "kan11_kantar",
      "pollster_family": "Kantar",
      "outlet_id": "israel_hayom",
      "label": "ישראל היום / קנטאר",
      "published_date": "2026-10-15",
      "received_date": "2026-10-15",
      "field_start": "2026-10-14",
      "field_end": "2026-10-15",
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.24,
      "respondents": 551,
      "sampling_error_pct": 4.2,
      "respondent_invites": 2476,
      "collection_mode": "internet",
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "editor_supplied_kantar_original_table_screenshot",
        "url": null,
        "visual_file_verification_in_this_build": true,
        "public_verification_in_this_build": false,
        "source_file": "kantar-israel-hayom-2026-10-15.png",
        "note_he": "ישראל היום / קנטאר, לא כאן 11. בהרצת R18 מופעל כלל המדידה האחרונה של המכון במשקל משפחתי קבוע של 24%. מדידת כאן 11 מ־11.10 נשמרת להשוואת R17, אך אינה נספרת שוב. זהו שינוי בסדרת המזמין בתוך אותו מכון ולא עדכון בסדרת כאן 11. מזהה source_id היסטורי נשמר לצורכי תאימות בלבד.",
        "source_slot_rule": "latest_measurement_per_pollster_family",
        "replaces_outlet": "Kan11",
        "replaces_published_date": "2026-10-11",
        "legacy_slot_id_not_outlet_identity": true,
        "no_new_pm_suitability_data": true
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 24,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "24"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 21,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "21"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 12,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "12"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 5,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "5"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 3.0,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "3.0%"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 0.8,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "0.8%"
        }
      },
      "additional_reported_below_threshold_lists": [
        {
          "name_he": "הציבור החרדי",
          "reported_pct": 0.9
        },
        {
          "name_he": "אח״י",
          "reported_pct": 0.7
        },
        {
          "name_he": "צבע שחור",
          "reported_pct": 0.6
        }
      ],
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 50,
        "opposition_non_arab": 52,
        "arab_parties": 14,
        "unassigned": 4
      },
      "reported_undecided_pct": null
    },
    {
      "source_id": "poll13",
      "label": "חדשות 13",
      "published_date": "2026-10-14",
      "received_date": "2026-10-14",
      "field_start": "2026-10-13T09:00:00+03:00",
      "field_end": "2026-10-13T20:00:00+03:00",
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.14,
      "respondents": 1018,
      "sampling_error_pct": 3.1,
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "editor_supplied_poll_and_election_committee_filing",
        "public_verification_in_this_build": false,
        "url": "sources/Survey_4210.pdf",
        "note": "News 13 allocation received 14 Oct; CEC report supplied 15 Oct confirms fieldwork 13 Oct and n=1018. Publication date remains the received TV report date; not a new poll. Four unweighted stratum aggregates are not introduced as additional independent model observations.",
        "pm_suitability_pct": {
          "Eisenkot": 45,
          "Netanyahu": 38
        },
        "visual_file_verification_in_this_build": true,
        "pollster": "שמואל רוזנר עם פאנל פרויקט המדגם, סטטנט ואסקריא; ייעוץ פרופ׳ דוד שטיינברג",
        "stratum_sample_sizes": {
          "jewish_adults": 600,
          "young": 57,
          "haredi": 255,
          "arab": 106
        }
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 20,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "20"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 18,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "18"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 12,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "12"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "מתחת לחסימה (אחוז לא נמסר)"
        }
      },
      "additional_reported_below_threshold_lists": [],
      "additional_list_coverage": "No new subthreshold percentages supplied for 14 Oct News 13 poll.",
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 51,
        "opposition_non_arab": 50,
        "arab_parties": 15,
        "unassigned": 4,
        "note": "Coalition includes Winter; Hendel–Zelicha separate."
      },
      "pm_suitability_pct": {
        "Eisenkot": 45,
        "Netanyahu": 38
      },
      "respondent_invites": 7857
    },
    {
      "source_id": "lazar",
      "label": "מעריב / לזר מחקרים",
      "published_date": "2026-10-16",
      "received_date": "2026-10-16",
      "field_start": "2026-10-14",
      "field_end": "2026-10-15",
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.11,
      "respondents": 700,
      "initial_sample_size": 700,
      "respondent_invites": 4395,
      "sampling_error_pct": 3.7,
      "undecided_pct": 5.2,
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "editor_supplied_published_article_text",
        "url": null,
        "public_verification_in_this_build": false,
        "note": "Maariv / Lazar / Panel4ALL fieldwork 14–15 Oct; full article supplied by editor on 16 Oct. Replaces the actual R18 active Walla/Lazar observation published 13 Oct (field 12 Oct), not an additional source. Article week-on-week changes refer to the publisher’s earlier survey, not necessarily the model’s previous active Lazar observation. Passing-party percentages were not supplied and remain null. No older Lazar aggregate percentages or choice-certainty observations are recycled as this poll.",
        "publication_date_basis": "editor submission and current publication context; field dates explicitly supplied",
        "population": "Representative sample of Israel residents aged 18+, Jews and Arabs",
        "method": "Stratified sampling, random within strata; Panel4ALL online panel",
        "continuity": "Same Lazar family slot, 11% within polling component; Maariv replaces Walla. No ninth source.",
        "reported_aggregate_percentages_not_added_to_fit": true
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 21,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "21"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 18,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "18"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 13,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "13"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 1.1,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "1.1%"
        }
      },
      "additional_reported_below_threshold_lists": [
        {
          "name_he": "הציבור החרדי",
          "reported_pct": 0.5
        },
        {
          "name_he": "נעם לישראל",
          "reported_pct": 0.5
        },
        {
          "name_he": "צומת בית ישראל",
          "reported_pct": 0.2
        }
      ],
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 51,
        "opposition_non_arab": 51,
        "arab_parties": 14,
        "unassigned": 4
      },
      "supplementary_reported_data": {
        "prime_minister_suitability": [
          {
            "Eisenkot": 48,
            "Netanyahu": 41
          },
          {
            "Bennett": 43,
            "Netanyahu": 43
          },
          {
            "Netanyahu": 43,
            "Lieberman": 37
          }
        ],
        "expects_own_bloc_to_win_pct": {
          "all": 79,
          "coalition_supporters": 90,
          "opposition_supporters": 75
        },
        "pessimistic_all_pct": 21,
        "if_no_decisive_result_pct": {
          "unity_government": 55,
          "repeat_election": 27,
          "dont_know": 18
        },
        "qualifications": "Optimism is not turnout intention. These descriptive responses are not numerical model inputs."
      }
    },
    {
      "source_id": "poll16",
      "label": "ערוץ 16 / מאגר מוחות",
      "published_date": null,
      "received_date": "2026-10-13",
      "field_start": null,
      "field_end": null,
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.1,
      "respondents": null,
      "sampling_error_pct": null,
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "editor_supplied_reported_tv_poll_seats",
        "received_date": "2026-10-13",
        "note_he": "נתוני מנדטים מערוץ 16 / מאגר מוחות נמסרו ישירות ב־13.10.2026. לא התקבלו קישור מאומת, זמן שדה, גודל מדגם, טעות דגימה או אחוזי מפלגות מתחת לחסימה. אל תייחסו מועד שדה לפרסום.",
        "public_verification_in_this_build": false,
        "source_note": "Same Maagar source slot, 10% of public poll pool, replacing received 6 Oct poll. Both Winter 4 seats and Hendel–Zelicha 5 seats reported passing."
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 21,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "21"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 18,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "18"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 13,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "13"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 5,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "5"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 5,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "5",
          "exact_pct_unavailable_confirmed_by_editor": true
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": null,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "not_reported",
          "display": "—"
        }
      },
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 52,
        "opposition_non_arab": 50,
        "arab_parties": 13,
        "unassigned": 5,
        "note": "Gush Netanyahu includes Winter; Hendel–Zelicha listed separately."
      }
    },
    {
      "source_id": "zman_tatika",
      "label": "זמן ישראל / טאטיקה",
      "published_date": "2026-10-15",
      "received_date": "2026-10-15",
      "field_start": "2026-10-14",
      "field_end": "2026-10-15",
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.09,
      "respondents": 500,
      "sampling_error_pct": 4.4,
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "editor_supplied_published_article_text",
        "public_verification_in_this_build": false,
        "note": "Tatika / Adgenda survey 14–15 Oct supplied by editor on 15 Oct. Replaces 8 Oct at unchanged 9% poll-pool weight. HZ reported_pct remains null: no exact percentage was supplied.",
        "panel": "Adgenda",
        "stratification": [
          "age",
          "religion",
          "gender",
          "region"
        ]
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 26,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "26"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 20,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "20"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 11,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "11"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 5,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "5"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 2.8,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "2.8%"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 1.2,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "1.2%"
        }
      },
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 49,
        "opposition_non_arab": 54,
        "arab_parties": 13,
        "unassigned": 4
      }
    },
    {
      "source_id": "i24",
      "label": "i24 / דיירקט פולס",
      "published_date": "2026-10-13",
      "received_date": "2026-10-13",
      "field_start": "2026-10-13",
      "field_end": "2026-10-13",
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.04,
      "respondents": 1210,
      "sampling_error_pct": 2.8,
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "user_supplied_broadcast_screenshot",
        "user_supplied_source": "צילום מסך שידור i24NEWS / Direct Polls מ־13.10.2026",
        "public_verification_in_this_build": false,
        "visual_file_verification_in_this_build": true,
        "note": "Screenshot footer: survey by Direct Polls Ltd headed by Tzuriel Sharon, for i24NEWS, dated 13 Oct 2026, digital system combined with panel, 1,210 adults (18+) in Israel, reported margin ±2.8% at 95% confidence. Poll percentages beneath threshold: Amcha Yisrael 3.1%, Hendel Zelicha 2.2%, Blue White, Haredi Public, Tzeva Shahor, Noam, Israel Tchila, Ale Yarok, Achi each below 1%. Figure transcribed from screenshot and not independently verified on public i24 site. Replaces 8 Oct Direct Polls in existing 4% poll-source weight slot."
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 21,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "21"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 27,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "27"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 13,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "13"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 9,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "9"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 6,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "6"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 3.1,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "3.1%"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": 2.2,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "2.2%"
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "below_threshold",
          "display": "<1%"
        }
      },
      "additional_reported_below_threshold_lists": [
        "הציבור החרדי",
        "צבע שחור",
        "נעם לישראל",
        "ישראל תחילה",
        "עלה ירוק",
        "אח״י"
      ],
      "reported_undecided_pct": null,
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 57,
        "opposition_non_arab": 50,
        "arab_parties": 13,
        "unassigned": 0,
        "note": "Coalition excludes Winter (3.1% under threshold), Hendel-Zelicha under threshold at 2.2%; excludes Arab parties from Zionist opposition."
      }
    },
    {
      "source_id": "poll14",
      "label": "חדשות 14",
      "published_date": "2026-10-12",
      "received_date": "2026-10-12",
      "field_start": "2026-10-12",
      "field_end": "2026-10-12",
      "weight_within_poll_pool": 0.02,
      "respondents": null,
      "sampling_error_pct": null,
      "provenance": {
        "kind": "user_supplied_tv_mandate_vector",
        "url": null,
        "note": "Editor supplied Channel 14 12 Oct party allocation (120 seats); replaces Oct 1 within existing 2% polling slot. No CEC survey PDF or exact fieldwork/sample confirmed in this package. For Winter: omitted from 120 seats, numeric raw percentage not supplied by user; do not infer. No party raw percentages inferred from seats.",
        "supplementary_cec_filing": "sources/Survey4209.pdf",
        "filing_is_same_measurement_not_new_poll": true,
        "reported_aggregate_percentages_not_added_to_fit": true
      },
      "parties": {
        "Yashar": {
          "reported_seats": 20,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "20"
        },
        "Likud": {
          "reported_seats": 29,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "29"
        },
        "Beyachad": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "Democrats": {
          "reported_seats": 10,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "10"
        },
        "Yisrael_Beiteinu": {
          "reported_seats": 5,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "5"
        },
        "Joint_List": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "Otzma": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "Shas": {
          "reported_seats": 10,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "10"
        },
        "UTJ": {
          "reported_seats": 8,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "8"
        },
        "RZ_Zehut": {
          "reported_seats": 7,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "7"
        },
        "Raam": {
          "reported_seats": 5,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "5"
        },
        "Amcha_Yisrael": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "no_seats_in_complete_supplied_allocation",
          "display": "ללא מנדטים*"
        },
        "Hendel_Zelicha": {
          "reported_seats": 4,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "passes",
          "display": "4"
        },
        "Blue_White": {
          "reported_seats": 0,
          "reported_pct": null,
          "status": "no_seats_in_complete_supplied_allocation",
          "display": "ללא מנדטים*"
        }
      },
      "reported_blocs": {
        "coalition": 61,
        "opposition_non_arab": 42,
        "arab_parties": 13,
        "unassigned": 4
      }
    }
  ],
  "source_slot_policy": {
    "description_he": "שמונה משפחות מקורות במשקלים קבועים. החל מ־R18 מוצגת במפורש המדידה העדכנית של קנטאר, גם כשהמזמין שונה. כאן 11 וישראל היום אינם נספרים יחד כמקורות עצמאיים.",
    "decision_build": "R19",
    "kantar_family_weight": 0.24,
    "kantar_outlet_change_disclosed": true
  }
}
