{ "as_of": "2026-10-13", "rules": [ "No double counting: raw filings enrich the same active poll observations.", "Focus comparison of current raw material on Kan 11, News 12 and News 13; Channel 14 is not used in the public comparison column.", "Do not infer voter transfers from net seat changes.", "Do not interpret between-pollster differences as a time series.", "Keep 59% Arab turnout base and 65% sensitivity unchanged.", "Do not add Achord September youth poll: excluded by editor instruction.", "Survey_4198.pdf has a contradictory title referring to reserve-duty servicemembers and sample definition 18–22; it is NOT a national poll or national turnout anchor. Retain as youth-only exploratory context until sample ambiguity clarified." ], "filings": [ { "file": "Survey_4182.pdf", "source": "Channel 13 30.9", "treatment": "context_only_for_subgroups", "n": 1013, "subgroups": { "adult_jewish": 600, "young": 61, "haredi": 230, "arab": 122 }, "sampling_error_pct": 3.1, "undecided_adult_jewish_pct": 11.2, "persistent_undecided_among_67_adult_undecideds_pct": 43.3, "arab_certain_to_vote_pct": 73, "haredi_certain_to_vote_pct": 67, "warning": "The earlier conversation incorrectly attributed 30.8% to the adult persistent-undecided cell; the source image shows 43.3%. Do not treat intention as turnout forecast or evidence of a Winter trend." }, { "file": "Survey_4179.pdf", "source": "Kan/Kantar 27.9", "treatment": "historical_context_does_not_replace_4_Oct_slot", "warning": "Raw/national table sums to 100% without undecideds; exact processing undocumented. Do not reweight as another poll. Regional subgroup sizes are not provided. Certain turnout is not actual turnout." }, { "file": "Survey_4173.pdf", "source": "Maagar 29.9", "treatment": "archived_replaced_by_new_editor_supplied_poll", "warning": "Read the 29.9 column, not 24.9. Winter 5, HZ 4. Rounded raw 3% and decided-only 3.3% for HZ are different denominators." }, { "file": "Survey_4177.pdf", "source": "Lazar 2.10, field 30.9–1.10", "treatment": "archived_replaced_by_lazar_8_Oct_measurement", "warning": "Party percentages sum to 100% while undecideds 6.4% reported separately; denominators/processing cannot be assumed comparable to Channel 13 subgroups. Winter3.5 HZ3.6 RZ3.9 are reported values, not reconstructed raw counts." }, { "file": "Survey_4176.pdf", "source": "Next Data 1.10", "treatment": "replaces_28_Sept_slot", "warning": "Listed above-threshold percentages sum to 92.4%; listed below-threshold percentages sum to 3.7%; undecideds1.2% bring the total to97.3%, leaving2.7pp unexplained. Respondents2145 differ from the2200 base underlying the reported14.7% response rate. No missing observations imputed.", "turnout_formula_note": "67.8% is the source model, not observed turnout. 97.5%*69.6%=67.86%; source says calculation used unrounded inputs. Its69.6% 2022 anchor differs from official70.63%." }, { "file": "Survey_4188.pdf", "source": "Kan/Kantar 4.10", "treatment": "same_active_slot_enriched", "n": 553, "sampling_error_pct": 4.2, "reported_percent_sum": 100.0, "reported_below_threshold_sum": 6.1, "warning": "Reported percentages enrich the existing 4 October poll; processing and respondent weights are undocumented. They are not verified respondent-level raw data. Certain-to-vote is not actual turnout." }, { "file": "Survey_4190.pdf", "source": "News 12 / Mano Geva, 5.10", "treatment": "same_active_slot_enriched", "n": 501, "sampling_error_pct": 4.4, "raw_pct": { "Yashar": 18.7, "Likud": 17.0, "Beyachad": 10.5, "Hendel_Zelicha": 3.4, "Amcha_Yisrael": 1.5 }, "undecided_pct": 10.0, "warning": "The filing explicitly says the raw percentages do not include undecided allocation. Do not reconstruct the published mandates without the pollster's undecided treatment." }, { "file": "Survey_4193.pdf", "source": "News 13 / Shmuel Rosner, field 6–7.10", "treatment": "same_active_slot_enriched", "n": 1263, "sampling_error_pct": 2.8, "sample_structure": { "adult_jewish": 603, "young": 60, "haredi": 500, "arab": 100 }, "warning": "The four subgroup columns are raw and unweighted. They are not national vote shares and must not be averaged or compared directly with national raw percentages from Kan 11 or News 12." }, { "source": "Zman Israel / Tatika, published 8.10", "treatment": "replaces_prior_zman_tatika_slot", "n": 500, "sampling_error_pct": 4.4, "reported": { "Yashar_seats": 24, "Likud_seats": 20, "Beyachad_seats": 13, "Amcha_Yisrael_pct": 3.6, "Amcha_Yisrael_seats": 4, "Hendel_Zelicha_pct": 3.2, "Hendel_Zelicha_seats": 0, "Blue_White_pct": 1.2 }, "warning": "Source text supplied by the editor reports fieldwork on 7 and 10 October, which is internally inconsistent with publication on 8 October. The end date is therefore left unresolved; the poll is still treated as the 8 October publication and replaces the prior Tatika slot." }, { "file": "Survey_4197.pdf", "source": "Maariv / Lazar, filed 11.10; field 8–9.10", "treatment": "same_existing_Lazar_mandates_updated_provenance_raw_for_review_only", "reported_undecided_pct": 5.3, "certain_to_vote": { "coalition": 81, "opposition": 86, "arab_parties": 74, "overall": 78 }, "raw_table_percentage_sum": 100, "warning": "Reported national percentages sum to 100% despite separate 5.3% undecided; normalized/transformed and potentially adjusted, not actual unweighted microdata." }, { "file": "Survey_4198.pdf", "source": "Dialog/Ynet, field 5–6.10", "treatment": "youth_sample_18_to_22_context_only_not_national_poll", "sample": 543, "party_undecided_pct": 14, "definitely_voting_pct": 67, "warning": "Document header calls this a reservist poll but population explicitly says nationwide age 18–22. No reweighting into national turnout or mandate forecast." }, { "file": "Survey_4199.pdf", "source": "i24 / Direct Polls, published 8.10; field 7.10", "treatment": "historical_prior_i24_observation_replaced_by_editor_supplied_i24_13_Oct_screenshot_not_active", "sample": 518, "raw_table_visible_sum": 96.9, "below_threshold_hendel_pct": 2.3, "warning": "No undecided figure and residual includes under-1% lists; record percentage table as reported, do not assume unprocessed raw microdata." }, { "source": "i24NEWS / Direct Polls broadcast graphic 13.10.2026", "treatment": "active_i24_source_slot_replaces_8_Oct", "file": "editor screenshot stored in audit/i24-13-oct-editor-screenshot.png; not distributed publicly in /public", "sample": 1210, "sampling_error_pct": 2.8, "field_date": "2026-10-13", "reported_seats": { "Likud": 27, "Yashar": 21, "Beyachad": 13, "Democrats": 9, "Otzma": 9, "UTJ": 8, "Shas": 7, "Joint_List": 7, "Yisrael_Beiteinu": 7, "RZ_Zehut": 6, "Raam": 6 }, "below_threshold_pct": { "Amcha_Yisrael": 3.1, "Hendel_Zelicha": 2.2 }, "warning": "Transcribed from user-supplied TV screenshot, not a committee filing nor independently retrieved written online report. Rounded reported values, not respondent-level raw data." } ], "latest_poll13": { "published_date": "2026-10-07", "field_dates": "2026-10-06 09:00 – 2026-10-07 09:00", "respondents": 1263, "sampling_error_pct": 2.8, "source_file": "Survey_4193.pdf", "treatment": "same_active_slot_enriched_not_new_poll" }, "latest_poll_update": { "as_of": "2026-10-12", "note": "Lazar filing enriches already counted mandates; Ynet age 18–22 context only; newer i24 measurement replaces 1.10 within the same active source slot; no ninth or tenth poll." }, "R18_new_filings": { "as_of": "2026-10-15", "same_measurements_no_extra_weights": true, "national_raw_shares_not_added_to_fit": true, "news13": "Survey_4210: field 13 Oct, n=1018. Unweighted subgroup summaries, not individual microdata or national percentages. Turnout is stated intention among respondents, not actual population turnout.", "channel14": "Survey4209: same 12 Oct poll; above-list percentages and below-list percentages have different labels/bases and do not form a valid single 100% vector.", "midgam": "Survey_4202: same 12 Oct poll; party table totals 100% plus 8.1% undecided separately; national percentage base requires care.", "lazar": "Survey_4207: same Walla 12 Oct poll; reported aggregate table is not individual microdata; party certainty is not turnout." } }