{
  "model_version": "M120-R19-conditional-2026-10-16-LAZAR-SURPLUS",
  "calculated_on": "2026-10-16",
  "poll_snapshot_received_through": "2026-10-16",
  "status": "new_reproducible_conditional_allocation_not_calibrated_election_prediction",
  "threshold_pct": 3.25,
  "total_seats": 120,
  "poll_error_scale_pp": 0.8,
  "seat_interval_extra_width": 0.0,
  "iteration_tolerance_pp": 1e-07,
  "max_iterations": 40,
  "arab_source_override": {
    "poll13": 0.5,
    "others_total": 0.5
  },
  "reference_demographic_scenario": {
    "haredi_pool_fraction_of_capacity": 0.5,
    "new_immigrant_fraction_of_residual_pool": 0.05,
    "haredi_base_turnout": 0.8,
    "empirical_status": "Technical representative scenario only, NOT approved population estimates. Cohort counts remain unknown. Main integer result must be checked against the sensitivity grid, not attributed to this chosen point."
  },
  "demographic_grid": {
    "haredi_pool_fraction_of_capacity": [
      0.0,
      0.1,
      0.2,
      0.3,
      0.4,
      0.5,
      0.6,
      0.7,
      0.8,
      0.9,
      1.0
    ],
    "new_immigrant_fraction_of_residual_pool": [
      0.0,
      0.01,
      0.02,
      0.03,
      0.04,
      0.05,
      0.06,
      0.07,
      0.08,
      0.09,
      0.1
    ],
    "haredi_base_turnout": [
      0.7,
      0.75,
      0.8,
      0.85,
      0.9
    ]
  },
  "structural_bridge": {
    "level": "2022 bloc totals, not an individual-level transition matrix",
    "old_coalition": [
      "Likud",
      "RZ_Otzma",
      "Shas",
      "UTJ"
    ],
    "old_zionist_opposition": [
      "Yesh_Atid",
      "National_Unity",
      "Yisrael_Beiteinu",
      "Labor",
      "Meretz"
    ],
    "old_arab_lists": [
      "Raam",
      "Hadash_Taal",
      "Balad"
    ],
    "within_bloc_party_allocation": "Current reconstructed polling proportions, explicitly used as a bridge for reconfigured lists. No individual voter migration is inferred.",
    "arab_ratio_proxy": "Arabic-list2022 bloc scaled by approved turnout/0.532. This is a party-bloc proxy; it is not an assertion that all Arab citizens vote for Arab lists.",
    "unassigned_and_other_baseline": "Carry current estimated HZ/BlueWhite/Other shares; do not classify them by unsupported2022 party transfers.",
    "young_and_returning_resident_adjustments": "No separate numerical effect; missing eligible-cohort counts and preference matrices are not invented."
  },
  "warnings": [
    "Reference result is conditional on new technical assumptions; not a reconstruction of the old undocumented engine.",
    "No probabilities of threshold crossing or election victory are calculated.",
    "The proportion of polling-source weight allocating seats is a descriptive statistic, not a probability.",
    "Missing reported percentages remain null in the immutable source file. Latent consensus estimates are stored separately.",
    "A demographic grid is a sensitivity check, not a population survey or confidence interval.",
    "Surplus agreement signatures were checked against public reporting on 16 Oct. Formal filing with the Central Elections Committee is not independently confirmed; the allocation is conditional on valid filing and both lists passing the threshold.",
    "Fixed effective pollster weights are used; no extra recency or sample-size weighting is silently layered on."
  ]
}